INSIDE THE LINES
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 29
Updated by 2:00 P.M. Eastern Weekdays
Updated by 9:00 A.M. Eastern Weekends
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(5) Miami (2-2 SU and ATS) at (4) Atlanta (2-2 SU and ATS)
The Hawks, who pulled out a split of two games in Miami to reclaim home-court advantage in their best-of-7 first-round series, return to Philips Arena for Game 5 looking to take a 3-2 lead over the Heat.
After getting hammered 107-78 Saturday in Game 3 as a four-point road pup, Atlanta rebounded with a solid defensive effort Monday for an 81-71 Game 4 victory as a five-point underdog to tie the series. Mike Bibby led five Hawks in double figures with 15 points, and reserve Zaza Pachula posted a double-double with 12 points and 18 rebounds. Atlanta is still just 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games, but Monday’s outcome continued a series-long trend, as all four games have been decided by double digits.
Miami got 22 points, seven assists and six rebounds from a hobbled Dwyane Wade, but only two other players reached double figures for the Heat, who were outshot 42.4 percent to 37.7 percent, hitting just 4 of 16 from three-point range (25 percent). Miami is still 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS in its last seven outings going back to the regular season.
The Hawks hold a 5-3 SU edge against Miami for the season, with the teams splitting the cash in those eight contests. However, going back further, Miami is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 battles with Atlanta, including 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings at Philips Arena.
Atlanta is 32-11 (23-19-1 ATS) at home this season, and Miami is 16-27 (21-21-1 ATS) on the road.
The Hawks are on ATS upticks of 11-4-1 after a spread-cover and 9-4-1 playing on one day of rest, but they still carry negative ATS streaks of 2-5 overall, 1-4 at home, 0-4 after a SU win, 2-6 against winning teams and 2-5 inside the Southeast Division.
The Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last seven first-round playoff games, but they are otherwise on positive ATS runs of 6-1 after a SU loss, 4-1 after an ATS setback, 4-1 after a day off and 5-2 against divisional rivals.
For Atlanta, the under is on tears of 5-1 overall, 7-1 against winning teams, 7-2 in the Southeast Division and 4-1 in first-round playoff games. Likewise, the under for Miami is on rolls of 8-1 against winning teams, 4-1 inside the Southeast Division and 4-1 in conference quarterfinal contests.
Finally, these rivals have stayed low in seven of eight meetings this year – with Monday’s contest falling way short of the 186-point posted price – and the under is also 4-1 in the last five battles in Atlanta.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(7) New Orleans (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS) at (2) Denver (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS)
The streaking Nuggets return home to the Pepsi Center aiming to finish off the Hornets and advance to the second round for the first time since 1994.
Denver, coming off a hard-fought 95-93 road loss in Game 3, posted a record-tying Game 4 victory, manhandling New Orleans 121-63 as a two-point road underdog. The 58-point margin of victory matched the NBA playoff record set in 1956, when the Minneapolis Lakers rolled the St. Louis Hawks 133-75, but the Lakers were the home team in that one. The Nuggets had seven players reach double digits, led by Carmelo Anthony’s 26 points, while Chauncey Billups added 17 points and eight assists. Denver is on a 17-4 SU run (13-8 ATS) and has cashed in all four games in this series.
All-Star point guard Chris Paul, coming off a 36-point effort in Game 3, finished Monday’s contest with a dismal four points, six assists and six turnovers for New Orleans, which was led by David West’s 14-point effort. The Hornets were down 61-39 at halftime, and it got markedly worse from there as they were outshot 56.6 percent to 31.5 percent and made just 2 of 15 three-pointers (13.3 percent). New Orleans is on a 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS slide in its last 12 games.
Denver is 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS against New Orleans this season, cashing in six of the last seven meetings, including the last five in a row. Despite the Nuggets covering the spread in Games 4 and 5 from the underdog role, the chalk is still 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings in this rivalry. That includes a pair of blowout victories and easy spread-covers by Denver in Games 1 and 2 at the Pepsi Center.
The Nuggets are 35-8 SU (25-17-1 ATS) at home this year, and New Orleans is 21-22 SU (16-26-1 ATS) as a visitor.
The Nuggets have cashed in five of their last six contests dating to the regular season and are on further positive ATS streaks of 12-4 overall, 12-3 against the Western Conference, 11-3 against winning teams, 5-1 after a day off, 8-3 after a spread-cover, 6-1 as a favorite and 6-0 against the Southwest Division.
On the flip side, the Hornets are on a boatload of negative pointspread streaks, including 2-7 overall, 1-4 on the road, 0-7 against the Northwest Division, 1-5 against winning teams, 2-9 against the Western Conference, 6-15 after a SU loss and 7-19 as an underdog.
The under for Denver is 21-7 in its last 28 first-round playoff games, and the under for New Orleans is on stretches of 16-7 overall, 11-4 after a day off and 7-3-1 as a playoff dog. However, the over is 5-1 in the Nuggets’ last six home games (2-0 in this series) and is 9-3 roll in Denver’s last 12 games as a favorite. Finally, in this rivalry, these squads have topped the total in each of their last four meetings at the Pepsi Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (14-7) at Atlanta (10-10)
The Cardinals look to bounce back from last night’s difficult loss at Turner Field when they give the ball to Adam Wainwright (2-0, 2.70 ERA), who is set to oppose the Braves’ Javier Vazquez (2-1, 2.62) in the rubber match of this three-game series.
After falling to St. Louis 3-2 on Monday, Atlanta trailed 1-0 going into the bottom of the eighth inning Tuesday, but scored two runs with two outs to pull out a 2-1 victory. Despite the comeback win, the Braves have still dropped nine of their last 14 overall, and they’re averaging just 3.1 runs per game during this stretch. Atlanta is in additional ruts of 12-31 against the N.L. Central and 3-7 versus right-handed starters.
The Cardinals on Tuesday lost for just the second time in their last eight games. Going back to last season, they remain on streaks of 20-7 overall, 6-1 against the N.L. East and 11-2 against teams with a losing record. However, they’re still just 7-17 in their past 24 road games.
St. Louis is still 8-3 in the last 11 meetings with the Braves, going 5-2 in its last six contests in Atlanta.
Wainwright gave up three runs (one earned) in seven innings during Friday’s home outing against the Cubs, getting a no-decision in the Cards’ 4-3 home win. St. Louis is 3-0 in the right-hander’s last three starts after losing his debut 6-4 to the Pirates. In his only other road outing this season, Wainwright beat the Cubs 7-4 at Wrigley Field, giving up four runs in six innings.
Vazquez, who signed with Atlanta in the offseason, has been outstanding so far, pitching exactly six innings in all four starts and allowing a total of just seven earned runs. In his last two efforts, the veteran right-hander has given up just two runs (one earned) on 12 hits in 12 innings, beating the Pirates 11-1 and the Reds 4-3, both on the road.
Vazquez has made one start at Turner Field this season, losing 5-1 to the Marlins despite giving up just three runs and striking out 12 in six innings. He has a 29-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three trips to the mound.
Wainwright has owned the Braves in his brief career, going 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA in six games (three starts). Conversely, Vazquez is 2-6 with a 4.01 ERA in nine lifetime outings against St. Louis.
The first two games in this series have stayed well under the total, which follows a four-game “over” stretch in this rivalry at Turner Field. Still, the over is 19-8-3 in the last 30 meetings overall. Also, for the Cardinals, the over is on runs of 8-4-1 overall, 5-2 on the road, 10-4 against right-handed starters and 28-13-2 against losing teams. However, the Braves have stayed low in six of their last eight overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (13-7) at Cleveland (8-13)
One day after snapping Boston’s 11-game winning streak in dramatic fashion, the Indians now look to take this three-game series when they send Fausto Carmona (1-3, 7.36) to the mound at Progressive Field against Red Sox lefty Jon Lester (1-2, 4.88).
The Indians rallied from an early 7-3 hole on Tuesday and pulled out a 9-8 victory, scoring the winning run on a Boston error in the bottom of the ninth. Despite the come-from-behind win, Cleveland is still just 5-6 in its last 11 games and 5-7 at home this season, and it has won consecutive games just once all season. Additionally, the Indians are mired in funks of 4-8 against the A.L. East, 2-7 as an underdog and 5-13 on Wednesday, but the Tribe have won four of their last five against southpaw starters.
Boston on Tuesday suffered its first loss since April 14 in Oakland, but Terry Francona’s squad remains on positive runs of 3-1 on the road, 7-1 against right-handed starters, 43-17 versus the A.L. Central and 5-1 on Wednesday. Also, during their 11-1 run, the Red Sox have tallied 91 runs.
The Red Sox had a four-game winning streak against the Indians snapped last night. However, going back to Game 5 of the 2007 A.L. Championship Series, Boston is 9-2 against the Indians (4-2 in Cleveland).
Lester started the season with two ugly outings (11 earned runs allowed in 11 innings in losses to the Rays and A’s), but he’s bounced back with two solid performances at home, holding the Orioles and Yankees to a total of two runs on 11 hits with 16 strikeouts in 13 innings. He got a 2-1 win over the Orioles and a no-decision in Boston’s 5-4, 11-inning victory over the Yankees on Friday.
The Red Sox have lost five of Lester’s last six road outings. Otherwise, though, with the southpaw on the bump, Boston is on streaks of 37-17 overall, 27-10 as a favorite and 4-0 all-time against the Indians, with Lester going 2-0 with a 4.03 ERA in those four outings.
In his first home start of the season Friday, Carmona yielded five runs (four earned) in six innings, losing 5-1 to the Twins. The right-hander gave up six runs in his first start of 2009 at Texas (8-5 loss), and he’s allowed exactly four earned runs in each of his ensuing three outings while pitching just 17 innings. Carmona has gone 10 consecutive starts without a quality outing (at least six innings pitched while giving up three earned runs or fewer). The Indians are 1-4 in his last five starts overall, but 21-10 in his last 31 at home.
Carmona’s first career start against the Red Sox was a complete-game 1-0, four-hit home victory in July 2007. Since then, though, he’s faced Boston three times (all at Fenway Park, and including two playoff outings) and allowed 15 runs (all earned) in just seven innings of work.
The Red Sox carry “over” streaks of 12-4 overall, 10-3 as a chalk, 6-1 on the road and 4-0 on Wednesday. Conversely, the under is 6-1 in Cleveland’s last seven games overall (all at home), but with Carmona pitching, the Tribe are on “over” runs of 21-7 overall, 11-3 at home and 4-1 versus the A.L. East. Finally, the under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these clubs and 6-3-2 in the last 11 clashes in Cleveland (1-1 in this series).
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
